A year ago, I dubbed Special Counsel Robert Mueller “King Bob” for his seemingly unchecked powers to do as he pleases, to whomever he pleases. Today, he showed that he still very much plays by a different set of rules than the rest of us, and doesn’t really care what anyone thinks of it.
The FBI raided the office of PDT’s personal lawyer and confidant, Michael Cohen. Included in the documents authorities seized was information related to Stephanie Clifford, aka Stormy Daniels, who’s been yammering on about an alleged affair with PDT in 2006 that the White House has denied. The search warrant was reportedly very broad in terms of items sought, and went so far as to include emails, tax documents and business records and bank records.
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WHAT ARE THEY INVESTIGATING?
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No one can say with absolute certainty at this moment, however there is a lot of fairly reliable reporting to give us a very educated guess.
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The main showstopper of a crime seems to be a possible Federal Election Commission violation. Yes, you’re reading that correctly. The FBI executed a no-knock warrant on multiple Cohen properties, public and private, in order to investigate a possible minor violation of election law.
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But federal investigators would have to demonstrate that the payment was, indeed, about influencing the election. If the payment was rendered with the intent of staving off bad press for the campaign, that would qualify as election influence. In her lawsuit against PDT, Daniels claims that’s exactly what it was. And she very well may be right. But the law isn’t about what you know, but rather what you can prove.
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If the $130,000 payment came from Trump himself, the payment did not violate the law on contribution limits. Candidates can put unlimited amounts of their own money into campaigns. So even if PDT handed her the check and wrote in the memo section, “To keep your friggin mouth shut through Election Day,” the feds wouldn’t have anything on him.
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However, if Cohen or someone else are shown to be the source of the money, which Cohen actually claims is the case, the campaign could be in legal jeopardy. But Trump himself can’t be indicted for such a thing, at least not while in office.
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BANK FRAUD?
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Aside from campaign finance violations, the other crime of interest seems to be bank/wire fraud. Unfortunately, we simply don’t know what information they have and thus are unable to conduct a legitimate analysis.
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One possibility is that Cohen is suspected of lying about the nature of the $130,000 he took out a loan for to pay Stormy Daniels. But again, there is nothing to substantiate that conclusively; I’m merely speculating.
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I have further thoughts on this and will elaborate at the end of the piece.
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WHAT ABOUT ATTORNEY/CLIENT PRIVILEGE?
The question of what qualifies as privileged communication can be a bit complex. Not every communication between an attorney and a client is included. One type of communication that’s excluded: communications between an attorney and a client that might be predicated on committing or covering up a crime.
Even with those checks in place, the U.S. attorney wasn’t guaranteed a warrant. Search warrants granted to U.S. attorneys are approved by magistrate judges serving in U.S. District Court.
In other words, the Cohen search warrant almost certainly included decision-making or approval on the part of the second-highest-ranking person at the DOJ (Rosenstein), a federal judge and the U.S. attorney or an assistant attorney general. Before it was executed, the team would have needed to check a number of boxes meant to reduce the likelihood of improperly seizing privileged material.
The U.S. attorney had to present something to that magistrate judge, and I suspect that the “might” in the phrase, “might be predicated on committing or covering up a crime” was milked for all its worth, hence my use of italics to emphases its importance.
There could have been a circumstantial case presented to the judge, who very well may have been wearing a coochie cap. It’s sad that this possibility must be considered so strongly, but the actions of the Judiciary since PDT took office (and even before that) leave me no choice. It’s absolutely reasonable to suspect that the evidentiary bar is considerably lower for anyone named Donald J. Trump.
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MY THEORY:
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The theory I’m about to put forth may not be shared by many, but popularity has never driven my thinking.
The meme among the public right now is that the King Bob crew raided Cohen’s dwellings because of evidence they have. That’s the logical inference, after all, and the vast majority of the time it is logical indeed.
As with so many things involving this presidency, though, I posit that the truth may be counterintuitive. Rather than executing a warrant based on what they have, what if Mueller’s team is operating based on what they don’t have?
Bear with me for a moment. Mueller has been investigating every square inch of Trump’s life since his butt-buddy Comey weasel-maneuvered to have him appointed last year. Anyone who has so much as taken a picture with PDT at some point in his life has had their closets checked for Putin. Fake News CNN hung on every last headline coming from the special counsel’s office — no matter how miniscule — in the desperate hope that each nugget of info would be the one to signal the end of their Trump boogey man.
Unfortunately, Mueller has yet to put much beef on the buns. They’ve got 12 year old lobbying violations on Paul Manafort and some Russians who organized political rallies and ran Facebook groups during the election. Not exactly Watergate-level stuff. But as corrupt as the Swamp is, it’s hard to simply will crimes into existence. PDT is no dummy. He’s not going to be taken down by manufactured nonsense. He’s no stranger to litigation.
But let’s remember one very important thing: Mueller is the Deep State’s answer to Trump. If he can’t bring him down altogether, he must at least do irreparable damage. Remember, it’s not about prosecuting crime or rooting out corruption. It’s about ensuring that the Swamp survives their worst nightmare — an all-out assault from an outsider who’s not beholden to them.
So let’s do some logical deduction. If Mueller doesn’t have the goods to bring down the Trump administration, which he clearly doesn’t if he’s looking for documents related to Stormy friggin Daniels, what would be the single most destructive thing he could do to the Trump presidency?
What have RINOs, Democrats and legacy media propagandists been clamoring for ever since King Bob was anointed to the throne? What is the “red line” that Twinkletoes Graham said would be “the end of the Trump presidency”?
You got it — Trump firing Mueller. They’ve been begging for it day after day, month after month, now over a year in total. And PDT keeps refusing to take the bait. Firing Mueller would immediately make impeachment the #1, 2 and 3 topics of conversation on Capitol Hill and every newsroom in America overnight.
I believe this is a trap. I believe Mueller doesn’t have much of anything beyond the aforementioned crimes no one gives a damn about, and so now he’s put down his rifle and donned a suicide vest in a final attempt to get the job done once and for all.
Think about it. He has no collusion. The crimes he’s pursing right now make his office a joke. Without PDT giving him and the Swamp what they want in the form of a firing, what other choice does he have? Not to mention all the bullets that are set to begin firing the other direction, as probes into Hillzdawg and Barry are still ongoing and very tight-lipped.
That’s what I think. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But given the totality of the facts and the logical inferences they dictate, I’ve yet to encounter a better explanation.
I suppose we’ll know more soon.
And I can guarantee that President Trump knows a whole lot right now.
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I actually agree with your analysis – he is fishing but I think he will do his best to turn Cohen in lieu of something he will find or manufacture as a threat to Cohen to implicate PDT in something – most likely the Daniels OR his businesses
I’m so confused,but you do make sense great recap and something to think about!
How much more bull shit can this President take ???