Understandably, many political observers, especially on the Right, take a skeptical view of polls. They weren’t the best predictor of the election in 2016, after all. On whole, though, there is much to be learned from the practice, even if one suspects the numbers being presented to be not completely accurate.
For example, with the latest round of polling looking so brutal for Joe Biden, one may ponder how bad the numbers really are. That could make for an interesting piece in itself, but it’s not the most important aspect of this story. The fact is, even if Biden’s numbers are inflated, they’re still very, very bad. While the real picture of discontent with this administration may not be wholly accurate, the message still gets across loud and clear: this is not a popular president.
In this piece, we’ll go over a couple data points and explain why they could spell doom for the Houseplant-in-Chief.
Jobs 1 and 2
There are two issues that are traditionally of major importance for any president: security and the economy. Democrats are underwater with both. Most Americans now view the Republican Party as better than the Dim Party at protecting the country from international threats and ensuring the nation remains prosperous, according to a new poll from Gallup. These are also the GOP’s widest margins ahead of the Democrats in either issue area in at least six years. On security matters: 54% prefer the Republican Party to only 39% who (somehow) prefer Dims.
Perhaps more importantly, on the issue of prosperity: 50% prefer the Republican Party whereas 41% prefer Dims. This is the largest GOP advantage since 2014.
While the Republican Party has historically been seen as the one better situated to handle security matters and the economy, Gallup adds some context for this latest bump: “More of this change has come from declines in Americans perceiving the Democratic Party as better on these issues than from increases for the Republican Party.”
Context is everything, and right now it’s telling us that Republicans are not so much viewed as competent, but rather are the beneficiaries of extreme incompetence on the other side. That should be drilled into every Republican’s head. Just imagine what kind of lead they’ve if they were considered competent in their own right. And God help us if Dim moderates have any luck marginalizing the communist wing of their party.
The Ever-Important Middle
In this tribal, hyper partisan age, it’s sometimes hard to remember that some folks are either casual observers or just refuse to be put in a political box. While their number has shrunk in recent years, Independents still mean a great deal to election outcomes. Lose independents, you’ve likely lost the election. Neither the GOP or Dim base can produce a strong enough turnout to lose Independents.
And that’s why this next data point spells so much trouble.
Since last year, there have been double-digit declines in the percentages of independents who say the Dim Party is better at handling the most important problems (from 42% to 31%), at keeping the nation secure (from 43% to 31%) and at keeping the nation prosperous (from 47% to 35%). That is extremely significant, statistically and electorally speaking. While poll numbers often fluctuate, they don’t often recover to any appreciable degree once hitting the low to mid 30’s on the biggest issues. This isn’t even to speak of issues like immigration and the border, where Biden’s numbers are even lower.
Final Nail in the Coffin?
As importat as the aforementioned numbers are–and they are important–there is one number that has been an even more reliable predictor of midterm success (or failure). I speak, of course, of the almighty presidential approval rating. While the Trump years proved this data point to be far from infallible–many voters simply weren’t comfortable with expressing support for President Trump over the phone–the number has shown great predictive capability in the past for the party in power.
Presidents below 50% approval see their party lose 37 House seats on average, whereas presidents with above 50% approval have lost only 14 on average.
If a president’s approval is slumping heading into a midterm election year, that generally spells disaster for his party’s representation in Congress. Adding to the problem for Biden are historical headwinds, as the party in power typically suffers losses in the midterms following a successful general election. By all accounts, the headwinds going into 2022 will be well-fueled and hurricane force. We are roughly 13 months from the 2022 midterms and Joe Biden’s overall approval is anywhere from 36 to 42%, depending on the poll.
He is not merely underwater; he’s a bottom-feeder in the aquarium in which he was placed by his handlers.
The worst news for Joe Biden is that the worst news has yet to arrive. There isn’t a single industrial analyst–at least none that have come forward–who believe the supply disruptions we’re experiencing are going away anytime soon. Unfortunately, it will only worsen as we head toward the holidays. The same can be said of inflation, which is already being felt in the pocketbooks of the middle class and poor. Inflation is growing at a rate 1.5% faster than wage growth, which results in a net loss for the average paycheck. We’re learning (yet again) that having extra money doesn’t help much when it has less purchasing power.
The Afghanistan debacle hurt our country’s soul. We have a historical aversion to projecting weakness on the world stage. But the latest problems are moving out of the abstract and into the concrete aspects of our lives. And that’s when typical check-and-balance midterms turn into shellackings.
Forget doom and gloom talking points about Dominion voting machines and shadowy election officials. Barring a cataclysmic event such a massive attack on our country and subsequent world war, Joe Biden and his party are going to lose. And in embarrassing fashion.
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